How to trade bitcoin today
Trading Bitcoin and Altcoins Today
How to trade bitcoin and altcoins today considering price action and volatility in the crypto currencies market.
Transcript of the video
Hello guys and welcome back to my channel where we talk about trading and analyzing Bitcoin, altcoins and cryptocurrencies.
If you’re new here I am Seer, a professional trader and today I’m going to give
you guys an update on crypto so you can understand where I think prices headed
in the coming days.
I’m going to show you how I created it and if you want to learn more about that, please keep watching my videos.
But before we get into it,
Make sure to hit that subscribe button below and also that notification bell. So you’re notified each time I post a video.
Let’s dive right into it. I spoke about this before.
Primarily what we were looking at was for Bitcoin to have his first impulse into a new market cycle. And right after that, a sideway monthly consolidation.
This was the third month, the previous month was the third month.
But what you can see is the previous two market cycles.
How the sideways was affirmed was that we never had a break of the previous monthly lows.
And now you can see Bitcoin is not following the market structure of the previous two market cycles.
We have now broken and close below the low of July and, essentially, this
is something really, really important guys because we have not seen this before on the Bitcoin chart.
We’ve had a strong impulse and no follow through, consolidation and what we are
doing now is correction.
I was looking at a yearly pivot test.
We are still holding the yearly pivot, which is at about 8,000 but what I want
to take you to is now the total market cap.
This is the total market cap on the weekly timeframe.
I want to show you something very important and different from the previous market cycle.
A comparison, you’re looking at highs and lows.
So you can see on the total market cap in the previous market cycles never made a lower low on the weekly.
That is that using price.
We were trending all the way til the December highs.
Very critically what you can see now is that the previous weekly candle, we now have made a lower low. Yes, that’s right.
We made a lower low and essentially
I’m just going to look for the brush. Yeah, we made the lower low,
So basically we’ve taken all the low that create the high and we have not done this before on the total market cap.
This is really, really important because this takes us into a downtrend and being in downtrend in the weekly timeframe,
I think it’s essential that now we’re looking to short bounces, you know, because this is not the same market structure that I feel everybody’s thinking that we are looking at anymore. Crypto as a market is doing something different.$
Either it’s going into a consolidation or another perspective to look at it is, let’s just look at the fibonnaci retracement.
We can see the 0.38 retracement from the previous market cycle.
It held of the weekly, those we made a similar kind of retracement.
Yeah it is 38.2 retracement. But yes, we haven’t held the weekly close.
So either of are heading into a consolidation phase or this is a new market cycle where we do find support, another weekly support.
So that weekly support is about 10% down from here.
Essentially if we do find support here and consolidate and move up, it is still a probability. But for now we are making a lower low on the weekly.
So I think everybody who is overly bullish needs to be able to care for.
I’m gonna switch also. I just remembered,
I wanted to talk about the yearly pivots here as well.
You can see on the previous breakdowns we did break down from the yearly pivot, but well the next year as you see, we turned it into support.
Currently we tested the yearly pivot as resistance and,
I mean now the market really needs to prove itself guys,I mean before getting overly bullish or you know, looking for the skies.
We need the market to prove itself. Um,
Moving on to the altcoin market cap,
I was looking at again, the previous cycle, it’s not exactly the same.
You know what we see. Look at the February retracement on the previous Altcoin market cycle.
You can see very clearly that we were much more bullish.
We had a 50% retrace on the first impulse we fully retrace that
made another little bounce and moved.
On this alt coin market cycle, we haven’t even been able to make a
23% bounce from the drop that we had.
That does not bode so well for altcoins. But essentially, yes we can make a retrace and do weekly support again and build a consolidation pattern like we did before.
Essentially that just reflects that we would need time here. You know, it’s nothing else.
It if nothing else and it does not break and the support holds and you get another very nice trade to long the crypto ecosystem again,
But for now essentially you need to be careful because what was support before, now turned into resistance and we broke down from it.
You can see we did something similar the last time.
So yeah guys,
This is what I see on higher timeframes.
This is the micro timeframe and uh,
I want to move to Bitcoin.
Let’s look at the Bitcoin chart on weekly.
So not like the total market.
On bitcoin right now, the weekly has survived.
Essentially the low that made the high on the weekly is surviving right now on Bitcoin, but what is not so good is that we did break down from a very strong support zone and we broke down with a decent amount of volume.
I want to zoom in a bit more, so okay,
Let’s check out the daily for a second. Okay.
The daily doesn’t look too ready yet, but yes, this 8k zone is support, which is also the yearly pivot has had one, two, three, four, five tests.
It has held it, I believe if we go down here again, the support is already
going to be exhausted.
What we’re looking at on the daily timeframe. Okay, let’s zoom in.
Zoom into the four hour. Let me show you something more clearly.
Okay. On the four hour we have, this is basically the monthly open which has been defended right now.
I think if we break below the monthly open on possibly even the four hour, the door to 8,000 opens again and we have built another higher range after we had a stop run over here.
This higher range, the the middle of this higher range. I think if we start closing above this, we can see 8600 use zone so my play right now would be, if you’re not already in the short, just a couple of hours ago, it was a really nice short over here.
My play would be to either see if price is closing above the middle of this range.
If you, these do see a close middle of this range,
You can see a play all the way to 8,600. But if you see a stop run here and maybe a retest, you can get another nice shorting opportunity.
If you see a daily close below the monthly open,
I would be very careful and essentially I am looking for adding to my shorts down here.
First target for that would be 8000 usd but I don’t think eight thousands we’ll hold. If we do, sorry. If we do start closing below this, I will add to my shorts again.
Again looking towards this weekly level, which is the liquidity, there
is a lot of liquidity down here.
These equal lows are also the weekly low. A Bitcoin breaks below this, I think we are in big trouble because uh, we’d be making a lower low in the
weekly. That is not a bull run guys.
That is essentially a downtrend on higher timeframe and you really need to understand that you cannot really expect a strong turn around,
I think there’s liquidity. If it’s taken down, it is possible that we could
get 7k or high 6k.
So for now this is the shorter and medium game plan for Bitcoin, the monthly, monthly open guys, it’s really important.
Essentially if we start closing below this, I think you should be looking for more
downside; and the middle of this range for revisiting 8,600. Um,
For alts of this is the daily frame against BTC.
I do think that once Bitcoin ends up finding support,
I’m going to go back to the Altcoin market Jack.
Altcoin versus Bitcoin
If Bitcoin ends up finding support in the higher 6k or even on the 6k, um, the Altcoin marketcap will retrace to this weekly level and essentially if we do retrace here, you can look for a nice sideways on Bitcoin.
And that’s what has me looking at this altcoin BTC chart.
If you look at market cycles like Litecoin, BNB, ADA, all of them have essentially had full retraces on the market cycles and full retraces with some sideways consolidation,
On most of them, would have me looking for at least a bounce play on altcoins if not entirely a new market cycle.
Definitely there would be some upside to play for all BTC.
Getting down to it.
Here’s the XRP BTC chart and you can see. I’ve drawn out a bit of a fractal from the previous market cycles.
We had a consolidation. We’see also pretty nice spikes up here,
And 100% moves with a nice range playing out.
I do believe we already reached the bottom of that range.
So we have probabilities of pretty good 40, 50, even 100% moves on XRP BTC.
It used to move fast. But if you can catch it at a nice place, this is a good play.
Another play that I would want to look at is ETHBTC.
It is in a very interesting position too.
Yep. So super long downtrend line all the way from the January 2018 highs, and we are very close to it.
Also we are very close to this important weekly level.
I think if we get above it, we’re going to get another run guys we could get 20, 30 even 50% is BTC.
I think these players will becoming once BTC find support somewhere and that we need to still find out where it’s going to be depending on mid timeframe plays. So that’s what I wanted to talk about guys.
I wanted us to be careful.
Don’t be overly optimistic because again, the total market cap we have broken
down and we are now making lower lows on a weekly timeframe. Bitcoin is yet to do that.
So in the mid timeframe we are looking at the monthly open.
Currently if you’ve been trading around it, we made a liquidity strike
over here and a strong, a strong down candle on the hourly timeframe.
So this is the play for BTC that had spoken awhile and uh, this is the play for AltCoins. And essentially, the large caps, they look good.
So whenever we see is going to be finding the bottom,
I suggest you really start looking into alt Btc play because for the next, I would say month or two, those would be the most profitable in
the crypto space.
That’s all for me guys.